Sunday, 21 June 2020

Combat outcome probability tables - posted by Josh barton, 19 June 2020

I spent a bit of time this morning designing some tables to assess your probable outcomes in DBMM. I won't be surprised if someone has done this before, but I've not seen it so I thought I'd share. Also, please let me know if there are any mistakes - I'm not a statistician, just an interested amateur.

With 2 dice, there are 36 possible dice combinations per combat, and adding the total factors (including terrain modifiers and back ranks) it's possible to work out how many of those 36 combos will result in a double or a win. I've also added % tables for people who prefer them.

I think the highest possible factors are +12 (pike general, 3 ranks, brilliant stroke, superior) vs +8 (spear or pike general, max ranks, superior, uphill) so I've expanded them out that far. Although I'm not sure if there are any brilliant Pk(S) generals, or if anyone has reached such massive factors!

It's also possible to account for superior and inferior factors by adding the *relevant* modifiers.







Aaron Jackson Very cool we did this way back with DBM if I am not mistaken in Christchurch wargames club

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